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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.