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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."