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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.